Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced that its country successfully launched into orbit its first indigenous satellite – named Omid or “hope” in Farsi.

Radio France Internationale (rfi) reports Ahmadinejad as saying on State TV:

“Dear Iranians, your children have put the first indigenous satellite into orbit…With this launch the Islamic Republic of Iran has officially achieved a presence in space.”

The launch intentionally coincides with the timing of the 30th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in Iran.

But did they really do it this time?

Some are already casting doubt on the validity of the report. Noah Shachtman over at Wired’s Danger Room writes:

Don’t panic, just yet. Time after time, public demonstrations of Iran’s alleged military prowess have turned out to be flim-flam. In early 2007, Iran announced that it has fired off a space-ready missile; turns out the thing was nothing more than a modified Scud. Last July, Iran said it launched a slew of missiles. Then it turned out the photographic “proof” was just a crude Photoshop job.

Robert Mackey writes on NY Times blog The Lede:

Given Iran’s history of making somewhat exaggerated claims in relation to launches in the past — including, most recently, a photograph of a July 2008 missile test released by the state news agency that turned out to have been doctored to make the test seem twice as successful as it actually had been, and the occasion in February 2007 when, as the BBC reports, “Iran said it had launched a rocket capable of reaching space — before it made a parachute-assisted descent to Earth” — the operative words so far are “Iran said.” In The Guardian, Julian Borger begins his article on how other governments see Iran’s space program by referring to the “apparently successful launch.”

In fact, skepticism is part of the reaction in Iran as well. Jon Leyne of the BBC reported after word of the test was reported that people he had spoken to on the streets of Tehran told him that the launch, “if true,” was good news.

Satellite launch a cause for concern in the West

Omid was reportedly carried into space by a Iranian-made (Safir-2) Ambassador-2 rocket, which has raised concern about the advances being made in Tehran’s nuclear weapons delivery capabilities.

“Islamist Iran has taken a giant step toward development of intercontinental ballistic missiles,” proclaims China Confidential.

Kit Eaton over at Fast Company writes:

The technology required to place a satellite into orbit is about as sophisticated as that required to direct a ballistic missile to a long range target–essentially both objectives need a powerful multi-staged rocket that can loft a payload beyond the atmosphere, and then direct it to a precise desination. In space the end-point is the desired orbit, for an ICBM its an earth-based target in another continent.

Arms Control Wonk theorizes that that there must have been a third stage for the launch vehicle to get the satellite into orbit successfully.

The two stages to the Safir launcher that are visible in the pre-launch photos would not, I believe, get a satellite into orbit. The most likely explanation is a solid-propellant third stage inside the clam shell nose faring. What would be helpful is if somebody (amateurs?) watched the brightness of the rocket body (once that is definitively identified) to see if we can get some indication of its size from that. There should definitely be a considerable size difference between Safir second stage (which is about 5 m long and 1.25 meters in diameter) and a hypothesized third stage inside the clamshell.

On Saturday, Russians took to the streets to protest the government’s response to the country’s deteriorating economic situation. Dubbed a “Day of Dissent,” these protests are a troubling sign for the Kremlin.

The Guardian reports:

More than 2,500 people attended a demonstration in Vladivostok against the government’s decision to raise import tariffs on cars.

In Moscow, about 2,000 gathered at protests uniting civil rights activists, communists and pensioners disgruntled at rising food and utility bills. There were smaller demonstrations in other cities. It was the first time such diverse groups had co-ordinated activities to direct their anger at president Dmitry Medvedev and prime minister Vladimir Putin.

Is the Kremlin letting them vent?

From Reuters:

In recent years authorities have regularly refused opposition groups permission to protest in the centre of Moscow, and sent riot police to break up unsanctioned rallies.

By sanctioning some protests, including the two on Sunday, the Kremlin appears to have acknowledged a need for the public to express discontent over hardships.

President Dmitry Medvedev met on Thursday the editor of Novaya Gazeta, the newspaper where Baburova worked. He expressed his condolences over the death.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, former president and Medvedev’s mentor, faces a serious test of his ability to quell social discontent as Russia heads into its first recession in a decade.

Half a million Russians lost their jobs in December as the economy, fuelled for a decade by high commodity prices, began to contract. Unemployment is at a 2-1/2-year high of 7.7 percent.

Russia’s economy is in a free fall

From NYT:

Spurred by revenue from higher prices for oil and other natural resources, a strong economy in recent years sowed expectations among average people that they could aspire to a lifestyle long taken for granted in the West — decent apartments, nice consumer goods and travel abroad. The country, it seemed, had moved past the despair and disarray of the 1990s after Communism’s fall.

But the recent collapse in the prices of oil and other commodities has walloped Russia, both financially and psychologically. The stock market has lost most of its value, the ruble has plunged and consumer demand has dropped sharply. Factories dependent on domestic sales have responded by halting production and slashing job rolls.

The federal government amassed $600 billion in reserves in the flush years, but it has been quickly draining that money to prop up the banking system, the ruble and failing industries. Now, $400 billion remains, and the reserve fund continues to shrink.

Is Putinism on the wane?

As the Kremlin’s influence in Russia’s regions is usurped by a growing panic among the local populations, RFE/RL ponders the future of Putinism:

Since coming to power in 2000, Putin has worked to steadily create a centralized and authoritarian political system in order to effectively rule and modernize Russia. Coercion played a role in this, to be sure.

But mostly the Putin regime relied on a vast network of patronage — similar to the Soviet nomenklatura system — in which key state posts, privileges, business assets, and favors were doled out to officials across Russia’s vast regions and republics in return for loyalty and obedience.

But with oil prices falling and Russia’s economy faltering, Kremlin largesse is in increasingly short supply, leading analysts to conclude that the seemingly sturdy system built by Putin is now being severely stretched. And the strains are visible everywhere.

In January, China’s State Council Information Office released a white paper report, China’s National Defense in 2008. This 95-page policy paper addresses a myriad of topics including China’s security challenges, modernization goals for its fighting force, and military budget.

China’s 2008 defense expenditures exeperienced its biggest increase since 2002 – nearly $45 billion or 18 percent. These numbers are a cause for alarm by China’s regional neighbors and global powers who remain suspicious about China’s intentions. Concerns over China’s military spending boom, however, is nothing new.

The white papers are intended to provide some transparency to an otherwise secretive military. In this latest report – the sixth of its kind issued every other year since 1998 – the Chinese government’s snapshot misses the mark.

Asia Times writes:

The latest paper…left many questions unanswered about the buildup of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and repeated old figures for defense spending that foreign analysts have said could be under-reported by as much as three times. China has not yet announced a defense budget for this year, but in 2008 it said spending would rise by 17.6% that year to about US$60 billion.

The United States and Japan have pressured China for years to reveal more about the development of its military capabilities, its foreign arms sales and the goals of its military transformation. The new paper tried to deflect further pressure by noting that US military spending dwarfs China’s.

In what is seen as a response to ‘a change in US attitude’ toward the deployment of its missile shield system in Europe, Russia has reportedly halted its own deployment of short-range missiles in Kaliningrad.

BBC News reports that the move “would be a substantial conciliatory measure to the new US administration.”

Under the Bush administration, the U.S. struck agreements to position pieces of its missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic as a deterrent to rogue missile threats – a move that angered Russia and prompted retaliatory measures including the deployment of short-range Iskander missiles to its Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad.

According to press reports, Russian news service Interfax quotes an unidentified senior Russian military official Wednesday morning as saying:

“The realization of these plans has been suspended in connection with the fact that the new US administration is not forging ahead with plans to deploy US missile defense elements” in east Europe.

What did they talk about?

The move has led to speculation about what U.S. President Obama and Russian President Medvedev spoke about during a call the two leaders had earlier this week.

Reuters writes in an analysis piece:

We don’t know what commitment, if any, U.S. President Barack Obama may have given to his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev on the missile shield.

Obama’s skepticism about the effectiveness and utility of missile defense was clearly stated during the campaign. But since the Russians unilaterally made the Kaliningrad threat on the day of his election, the suspension of the deployment plan is a clear goodwill gesture.

Kremlin denials abound

According to Voice of America:

Russian Defense Ministry officials are denying Russian news reports of a suspension of plans to deploy missiles in the country’s Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad.

The officials called the reports “premature. ” They said Russia has not taken any practical steps to deploy the short-range Iskander missiles and therefore one can not speak of a suspension.

While it appears as if a formal announcement has not been made, Russia is sending a positive signal to the new U.S. administration, which should not be discounted.

Ukraine and Russia have finalized the details of a 10-year gas deal. The agreement comes after an 18-day Russian gas embargo to Ukraine prompted by a dispute over price and Russian allegations that Ukraine was stealing gas.

The embargo disrupted energy supplies in many parts of Europe, and had a major impact on EU relations with Russia and Ukraine.

Orange Devolution

Some say this latest gas agreement undermines one of the major tenets of the Orange Revolution – fighting corruption.

The Washington Post’s Philip Pan observes:

According to a wide spectrum of political figures, journalists, diplomats and analysts, the Orange Revolution’s failure to eliminate the corrupting influence of cheap Russian gas poisoned Ukraine’s transition to democratic politics, tarnishing its reputation abroad and leaving much of the public here disillusioned.

He goes on to write…

Depending on the fine print, the agreement will probably mean a gas price not far from the final negotiating positions of both sides before talks broke down, suggesting that the standoff has always been less about commercial differences than political ones.

Many in Ukraine and the West have seen it as an attempt by Russia to assert its influence in the region and weaken the pro-Western government of a neighbor, a sort of non-violent sequel to its August war against Georgia.

But the crisis also highlighted much of what has gone wrong with Ukraine’s experiment in democracy, including a crippling feud between the Orange Revolution’s leaders, Yushchenko and Tymoshenko, and a weak judiciary that has been unable to address pervasive allegations of corruption.

President Viktor Yushchenko seems weakened after his opponent in the upcoming presidential elections, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, was the one who successfully brokered the deal with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

Ukraine’s transition toward a stable democratic government has been repeatedly hindered by both internal and external setbacks. This gas deal is the latest in a series of political calculations by the Kremlin to trip up reformers of the Orange Revolution.

Long, hard slog

With presidential elections just around the corner, it is likely that political forces on both sides will intensify their efforts to gain an advantage over the other.

For now though, it seems as if the reformers who vowed to bring change to Ukraine are facing a steep uphill climb as they battle one of the greatest of political fights – regaining the confidence of the electorate and proving that they still have the ability to affect change.