Gas Deal Undermines Ukraine’s Reformers
Ukraine and Russia have finalized the details of a 10-year gas deal. The agreement comes after an 18-day Russian gas embargo to Ukraine prompted by a dispute over price and Russian allegations that Ukraine was stealing gas.
The embargo disrupted energy supplies in many parts of Europe, and had a major impact on EU relations with Russia and Ukraine.
Orange Devolution
Some say this latest gas agreement undermines one of the major tenets of the Orange Revolution – fighting corruption.
The Washington Post’s Philip Pan observes:
According to a wide spectrum of political figures, journalists, diplomats and analysts, the Orange Revolution’s failure to eliminate the corrupting influence of cheap Russian gas poisoned Ukraine’s transition to democratic politics, tarnishing its reputation abroad and leaving much of the public here disillusioned.
He goes on to write…
Depending on the fine print, the agreement will probably mean a gas price not far from the final negotiating positions of both sides before talks broke down, suggesting that the standoff has always been less about commercial differences than political ones.
Many in Ukraine and the West have seen it as an attempt by Russia to assert its influence in the region and weaken the pro-Western government of a neighbor, a sort of non-violent sequel to its August war against Georgia.
But the crisis also highlighted much of what has gone wrong with Ukraine’s experiment in democracy, including a crippling feud between the Orange Revolution’s leaders, Yushchenko and Tymoshenko, and a weak judiciary that has been unable to address pervasive allegations of corruption.
President Viktor Yushchenko seems weakened after his opponent in the upcoming presidential elections, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, was the one who successfully brokered the deal with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
Ukraine’s transition toward a stable democratic government has been repeatedly hindered by both internal and external setbacks. This gas deal is the latest in a series of political calculations by the Kremlin to trip up reformers of the Orange Revolution.
Long, hard slog
With presidential elections just around the corner, it is likely that political forces on both sides will intensify their efforts to gain an advantage over the other.
For now though, it seems as if the reformers who vowed to bring change to Ukraine are facing a steep uphill climb as they battle one of the greatest of political fights – regaining the confidence of the electorate and proving that they still have the ability to affect change.
Tags: EU, Europe, gas, Putin, Russia, Tymoshenko, Ukraine, Yushchenko
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