Will Putin Remain in Charge?

On Sunday, the Washington Post took a stab at the question that has consumed Kremlin-watchers since Russian President Vladimir Putin tapped Dmitri Medvedev to run as his successor. Medvedev will assume the Russian presidency on Wednesday. While Putin is largely expected to assume the prime minister’s post and will direct the dominant United Russia party, a lot remains to be determined how power will be divided among the two men.

From WaPo…

…What remains uncertain is how Putin intends to exercise this power, and to what end. Is he simply biding his time before returning to the Kremlin as president, consolidating his new position so as to rule out the unlikely possibility that Medvedev might warm to the presidency and turn against him? Or has he been careful to maintain so much power in order to protect Medvedev while the neophyte president establishes his own base in a system that would devour him without Putin’s oversight? Or is there no grand strategy, and the two men, while agreeing to share power, have not looked beyond the horizon?

Olga Kryshtanovskaya, director of the Moscow-based Center for the Study of Elites, is certain of one thing. “I’m absolutely sure that Putin is coming back” as president, she said. “Whether that happens in two or four years, I don’t know. But he will be coming back for 14 years, two new seven-year terms.”

Kryshtanovskaya points to calls by political figures such as Gryzlov for parliamentary and presidential elections to be held two years apart rather than close together, as they are now. Splitting the polls that way could trigger a new presidential election in 2010. United Russia leaders have also spoken of extending the presidential term to seven years.

Such amendments to the electoral law could see Putin back in the Kremlin until 2024. Nor has Putin ruled out a return to the Kremlin; indeed, he has publicly flirted with the idea on occasion.

“I think Medvedev is a willing participant in all of this,” Kryshtanovskaya said. “Of course, there is a very small chance that Medvedev might betray him and become a real president, and some of Putin’s moves recently are to protect himself from that.”

But Sergey Markov, a United Russia lawmaker and political analyst, said that if Medvedev proves up to the job and broadly follows the policies set by Putin, then the former president will leave the stage in a year or two.

“Putin is Medvedev’s political father,” Markov said. “If Medvedev is successful, Putin will step aside. He wants to give the chance to someone else. He will not become a simple pensioner, but he is not obsessed with keeping power. Of course, if Medvedev fails, he can return.” Read more…

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