Iran Reportedly Sends Satellite into Orbit

Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced that its country successfully launched into orbit its first indigenous satellite – named Omid or “hope” in Farsi.

Radio France Internationale (rfi) reports Ahmadinejad as saying on State TV:

“Dear Iranians, your children have put the first indigenous satellite into orbit…With this launch the Islamic Republic of Iran has officially achieved a presence in space.”

The launch intentionally coincides with the timing of the 30th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in Iran.

But did they really do it this time?

Some are already casting doubt on the validity of the report. Noah Shachtman over at Wired’s Danger Room writes:

Don’t panic, just yet. Time after time, public demonstrations of Iran’s alleged military prowess have turned out to be flim-flam. In early 2007, Iran announced that it has fired off a space-ready missile; turns out the thing was nothing more than a modified Scud. Last July, Iran said it launched a slew of missiles. Then it turned out the photographic “proof” was just a crude Photoshop job.

Robert Mackey writes on NY Times blog The Lede:

Given Iran’s history of making somewhat exaggerated claims in relation to launches in the past — including, most recently, a photograph of a July 2008 missile test released by the state news agency that turned out to have been doctored to make the test seem twice as successful as it actually had been, and the occasion in February 2007 when, as the BBC reports, “Iran said it had launched a rocket capable of reaching space — before it made a parachute-assisted descent to Earth” — the operative words so far are “Iran said.” In The Guardian, Julian Borger begins his article on how other governments see Iran’s space program by referring to the “apparently successful launch.”

In fact, skepticism is part of the reaction in Iran as well. Jon Leyne of the BBC reported after word of the test was reported that people he had spoken to on the streets of Tehran told him that the launch, “if true,” was good news.

Satellite launch a cause for concern in the West

Omid was reportedly carried into space by a Iranian-made (Safir-2) Ambassador-2 rocket, which has raised concern about the advances being made in Tehran’s nuclear weapons delivery capabilities.

“Islamist Iran has taken a giant step toward development of intercontinental ballistic missiles,” proclaims China Confidential.

Kit Eaton over at Fast Company writes:

The technology required to place a satellite into orbit is about as sophisticated as that required to direct a ballistic missile to a long range target–essentially both objectives need a powerful multi-staged rocket that can loft a payload beyond the atmosphere, and then direct it to a precise desination. In space the end-point is the desired orbit, for an ICBM its an earth-based target in another continent.

Arms Control Wonk theorizes that that there must have been a third stage for the launch vehicle to get the satellite into orbit successfully.

The two stages to the Safir launcher that are visible in the pre-launch photos would not, I believe, get a satellite into orbit. The most likely explanation is a solid-propellant third stage inside the clam shell nose faring. What would be helpful is if somebody (amateurs?) watched the brightness of the rocket body (once that is definitively identified) to see if we can get some indication of its size from that. There should definitely be a considerable size difference between Safir second stage (which is about 5 m long and 1.25 meters in diameter) and a hypothesized third stage inside the clamshell.

A Day of Dissent in Russia

On Saturday, Russians took to the streets to protest the government’s response to the country’s deteriorating economic situation. Dubbed a “Day of Dissent,” these protests are a troubling sign for the Kremlin.

The Guardian reports:

More than 2,500 people attended a demonstration in Vladivostok against the government’s decision to raise import tariffs on cars.

In Moscow, about 2,000 gathered at protests uniting civil rights activists, communists and pensioners disgruntled at rising food and utility bills. There were smaller demonstrations in other cities. It was the first time such diverse groups had co-ordinated activities to direct their anger at president Dmitry Medvedev and prime minister Vladimir Putin.

Is the Kremlin letting them vent?

From Reuters:

In recent years authorities have regularly refused opposition groups permission to protest in the centre of Moscow, and sent riot police to break up unsanctioned rallies.

By sanctioning some protests, including the two on Sunday, the Kremlin appears to have acknowledged a need for the public to express discontent over hardships.

President Dmitry Medvedev met on Thursday the editor of Novaya Gazeta, the newspaper where Baburova worked. He expressed his condolences over the death.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, former president and Medvedev’s mentor, faces a serious test of his ability to quell social discontent as Russia heads into its first recession in a decade.

Half a million Russians lost their jobs in December as the economy, fuelled for a decade by high commodity prices, began to contract. Unemployment is at a 2-1/2-year high of 7.7 percent.

Russia’s economy is in a free fall

From NYT:

Spurred by revenue from higher prices for oil and other natural resources, a strong economy in recent years sowed expectations among average people that they could aspire to a lifestyle long taken for granted in the West — decent apartments, nice consumer goods and travel abroad. The country, it seemed, had moved past the despair and disarray of the 1990s after Communism’s fall.

But the recent collapse in the prices of oil and other commodities has walloped Russia, both financially and psychologically. The stock market has lost most of its value, the ruble has plunged and consumer demand has dropped sharply. Factories dependent on domestic sales have responded by halting production and slashing job rolls.

The federal government amassed $600 billion in reserves in the flush years, but it has been quickly draining that money to prop up the banking system, the ruble and failing industries. Now, $400 billion remains, and the reserve fund continues to shrink.

Is Putinism on the wane?

As the Kremlin’s influence in Russia’s regions is usurped by a growing panic among the local populations, RFE/RL ponders the future of Putinism:

Since coming to power in 2000, Putin has worked to steadily create a centralized and authoritarian political system in order to effectively rule and modernize Russia. Coercion played a role in this, to be sure.

But mostly the Putin regime relied on a vast network of patronage — similar to the Soviet nomenklatura system — in which key state posts, privileges, business assets, and favors were doled out to officials across Russia’s vast regions and republics in return for loyalty and obedience.

But with oil prices falling and Russia’s economy faltering, Kremlin largesse is in increasingly short supply, leading analysts to conclude that the seemingly sturdy system built by Putin is now being severely stretched. And the strains are visible everywhere.

China’s Military Spending Proliferates

In January, China’s State Council Information Office released a white paper report, China’s National Defense in 2008. This 95-page policy paper addresses a myriad of topics including China’s security challenges, modernization goals for its fighting force, and military budget.

China’s 2008 defense expenditures exeperienced its biggest increase since 2002 – nearly $45 billion or 18 percent. These numbers are a cause for alarm by China’s regional neighbors and global powers who remain suspicious about China’s intentions. Concerns over China’s military spending boom, however, is nothing new.

The white papers are intended to provide some transparency to an otherwise secretive military. In this latest report – the sixth of its kind issued every other year since 1998 – the Chinese government’s snapshot misses the mark.

Asia Times writes:

The latest paper…left many questions unanswered about the buildup of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and repeated old figures for defense spending that foreign analysts have said could be under-reported by as much as three times. China has not yet announced a defense budget for this year, but in 2008 it said spending would rise by 17.6% that year to about US$60 billion.

The United States and Japan have pressured China for years to reveal more about the development of its military capabilities, its foreign arms sales and the goals of its military transformation. The new paper tried to deflect further pressure by noting that US military spending dwarfs China’s.

Russia Reportedly Stops Missile Deployment

In what is seen as a response to ‘a change in US attitude’ toward the deployment of its missile shield system in Europe, Russia has reportedly halted its own deployment of short-range missiles in Kaliningrad.

BBC News reports that the move “would be a substantial conciliatory measure to the new US administration.”

Under the Bush administration, the U.S. struck agreements to position pieces of its missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic as a deterrent to rogue missile threats – a move that angered Russia and prompted retaliatory measures including the deployment of short-range Iskander missiles to its Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad.

According to press reports, Russian news service Interfax quotes an unidentified senior Russian military official Wednesday morning as saying:

“The realization of these plans has been suspended in connection with the fact that the new US administration is not forging ahead with plans to deploy US missile defense elements” in east Europe.

What did they talk about?

The move has led to speculation about what U.S. President Obama and Russian President Medvedev spoke about during a call the two leaders had earlier this week.

Reuters writes in an analysis piece:

We don’t know what commitment, if any, U.S. President Barack Obama may have given to his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev on the missile shield.

Obama’s skepticism about the effectiveness and utility of missile defense was clearly stated during the campaign. But since the Russians unilaterally made the Kaliningrad threat on the day of his election, the suspension of the deployment plan is a clear goodwill gesture.

Kremlin denials abound

According to Voice of America:

Russian Defense Ministry officials are denying Russian news reports of a suspension of plans to deploy missiles in the country’s Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad.

The officials called the reports “premature. ” They said Russia has not taken any practical steps to deploy the short-range Iskander missiles and therefore one can not speak of a suspension.

While it appears as if a formal announcement has not been made, Russia is sending a positive signal to the new U.S. administration, which should not be discounted.

Gas Deal Undermines Ukraine’s Reformers

Ukraine and Russia have finalized the details of a 10-year gas deal. The agreement comes after an 18-day Russian gas embargo to Ukraine prompted by a dispute over price and Russian allegations that Ukraine was stealing gas.

The embargo disrupted energy supplies in many parts of Europe, and had a major impact on EU relations with Russia and Ukraine.

Orange Devolution

Some say this latest gas agreement undermines one of the major tenets of the Orange Revolution – fighting corruption.

The Washington Post’s Philip Pan observes:

According to a wide spectrum of political figures, journalists, diplomats and analysts, the Orange Revolution’s failure to eliminate the corrupting influence of cheap Russian gas poisoned Ukraine’s transition to democratic politics, tarnishing its reputation abroad and leaving much of the public here disillusioned.

He goes on to write…

Depending on the fine print, the agreement will probably mean a gas price not far from the final negotiating positions of both sides before talks broke down, suggesting that the standoff has always been less about commercial differences than political ones.

Many in Ukraine and the West have seen it as an attempt by Russia to assert its influence in the region and weaken the pro-Western government of a neighbor, a sort of non-violent sequel to its August war against Georgia.

But the crisis also highlighted much of what has gone wrong with Ukraine’s experiment in democracy, including a crippling feud between the Orange Revolution’s leaders, Yushchenko and Tymoshenko, and a weak judiciary that has been unable to address pervasive allegations of corruption.

President Viktor Yushchenko seems weakened after his opponent in the upcoming presidential elections, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, was the one who successfully brokered the deal with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

Ukraine’s transition toward a stable democratic government has been repeatedly hindered by both internal and external setbacks. This gas deal is the latest in a series of political calculations by the Kremlin to trip up reformers of the Orange Revolution.

Long, hard slog

With presidential elections just around the corner, it is likely that political forces on both sides will intensify their efforts to gain an advantage over the other.

For now though, it seems as if the reformers who vowed to bring change to Ukraine are facing a steep uphill climb as they battle one of the greatest of political fights – regaining the confidence of the electorate and proving that they still have the ability to affect change.

Russia Pulls Back in Georgia

Anatoly Serdyukov, Russia’s defence minister, declared his nation’s military pull out “fulfilled” on Friday. This proclamation came despite signs that Russian forces are digging in at locations in the vicinity of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

The cease-fire agreement brokered by the French and signed by both Russia and Georgia calls for the withdrawal of forces to their pre-conflict positions. The Kremlin has interpreted the agreement to allow for its forces to patrol the conflict zone in on on peacekeeping capacity. Georgia wonders how the Russians can act as peacekeepers for South Ossetia when they have been fighting on their behalf.

Yesterday, U.S. officials reacted with disappointment to what they consider to be an “incomplete” pullout as agreed under the cease-fire framework.

Russia seems determined to provide the support necessary for the South Ossetians to obtain independence from Georgia, while also exerting considerable pressure on the Georgian government in the hopes that it will bring down President Mikheil Saakashvili.

If we have learned anything from this conflict, it is that the Georgians are a strong and defiant people, and Saakashvili is a fighter. Neither will go quietly.

The West, in seeming disarray throughout this who crisis, needs to formulate a policy and diplomatic response that supports Georgia’s sovereignty and let’s the Kremlin know that there will be consequences for their actions. They must also work with both sides to ensure a continued cessation of hostilities. So far, this has not happened to the extent it should.

Georgia Punished by Russia

After a brutal campaign that has been viewed by the international community as unnecessary over-reaching, Russian president Dmitri Medvedev declared that Georgia has received a proper punishment for invading South Ossetia and accepted the terms of a French-brokered provisional cease-fire.

Medvedev told his military chiefs during a meeting Tuesday:

“The aggressor has been punished and suffered significant losses…I have taken the decision to end the operation to force Georgian authorities into peace.”

Despite Medvedev’s proclamation, Georgians are reporting that columns of Russian forces and “irregulars” (mostly Cossacks, Chechens and Ossetians) following behind them, continue to roll through the Georgian town of Gori. Reports of burning and looting of villages and towns in and around Gori are widespread. Russia denies these claims.

Guardian correspondent Luke Harding filed the following from an area near Gori:

Villages in Georgia were being burned and looted as Russian tanks followed by “irregulars” advanced from the breakaway province of South Ossetia, eyewitnesses said today.

“People are fleeing, there is a mood of absolute panic. The idea there is a ceasefire is ridiculous,” Luke Harding, the Guardian’s correspondent, said.

Russia denied any advance, however Georgian authorities claimed that about 50 tanks and armoured vehicles were near the strategically important town of Gori.

Harding, watching villages near Gori burn, said witnesses had told him Russian military, including at least 25 tanks, had moved from the Russian-controlled South Ossetia into the villages.

“They asked villagers to hang white flags or handkerchiefs outside their houses if they did not want to be shot, they say.”

The tanks had passed through the village of Rekha at about 11.20am local time. “Behind them (say eyewitnesses) is a whole column of irregulars who locals say are Chechens, Cossacks and Ossetians.

“Eyewitnesses say they are looting, killing and burning. These irregulars have killed three people and set fire to villages. They have been taking away young boys and girls,” said Harding, watching smoke rise from another village, Karaleti. Read more…

Listen to Harding’s report from Gori

Russia Accuses American Forces of Involvement in Georgia’s Attacks on South Ossetia

Meanwhile, Russians maintain, and Americans continue to deny, any involvement in Georgia’s military invasion of South Ossetia. Russia accuses the U.S., who had more than 120 military trainers in Georgia preparing troops for an upcoming peacekeeping mission in Iraq, of participating in the invasion.

On Wednesday, Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s Nato ambassador, said:

“At least 127 American military instructors were in Georgia at the beginning of the conflict. There were joint training sessions that happened right before the start of the conflict.”

He implied that some of the Georgian troops that invaded South Ossetia were darker than normal Georgians and that Russia would do DNA tests if necessary.

Georgia’s Election Proves a Mixed Bag

Georgia’s President Mikheil Saakashvili’s party has claimed victory after taking a commanding lead in the country’s parliamentary elections.

Meanwhile, Georgia’s opposition has rejected the ruling government’s positive exit polls as nothing more than a means of pre-determining the election outcome.

At a rally in Tbilisi this evening, the largest opposition bloc, United Opposition, stated that they will be releasing the real election results very soon. Throughout this campaign, the opposition has cried foul of the government’s efforts to undermine their election chances.

Reuters has a succinct blow-by-blow…

No official results have yet been published but an independent exit poll showed Saakashvili’s party had won about 63 percent of the votes in the Wednesday election with the main opposition bloc taking about 14 to 16 percent.

The opposition, which claimed victory in the election ten minutes before polls closed, said there had been massive vote rigging across the Caucasus country of 4.5 million.

The West says the election is a test of Saakashvili’s commitment to democracy as he steers his ex-Soviet Caucasus country towards the NATO military alliance, a policy that has riled giant neighbor Russia.

Over the next few days, it is likely that the accusations will be flying on both sides. Saakashvili needs to demonstrate continued democratic reforms starting with a commitment to free and fair elections or he risks losing face in the West and will become even more isolated.

In other news on Wednesday, shots were exchanged between forces at the border of Georgia and the breakaway Abkhazia region. Several residents were wounded as they attempted to head to the polls to vote.

Report: Sino Military Build Up Focused on Deterring U.S.

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) released a report on Monday stating that China’s stunning military build-up is focused first and formost on detering a U.S. military response to a war with Taiwan.

From AFP…

Beijing is focusing on developing long-range missiles “to strike at American bases and battle carrier groups stationed in the Asia-Pacific… so as to block the United States from coming to the rescue of Taiwan should war break out in the Taiwan Strait,” the ministry said in a report released Monday.

“Although the Chinese communists have claimed they would like to solve the Taiwan issues in a peaceful manner, they have asked their forces to step up preparation for military struggles against Taiwan,” the report said.

China believes that “if it employs military actions against Taiwan, foreign intervention would be its greatest concern, with the United States being the most significant foreign power,” it added.

While the United States has adopted Beijing’s ‘one-China’ policy, it has also pledged to protect Taiwan and has sold the island nation a series of weapon systems to help thwart a first-wave attack.

In April 2007, we posted (see “Simulation Shows Taiwan Wins First Round with China“) on a Taiwan defense simulation which cited “that the island could initially repel an invasion [from China]. However, contradictory evidence is emerging that China’s growing military strength, coupled with Taiwan’s inability to appropriately bolster and fund its own forces, may be actually turning the advantage in a potential Taiwan-China standoff toward Beijing’s favor.”

In an editorial highlighting misguided priorities in U.S. defense spending, the Los Angeles Times does not view China’s threat to Taiwan’s sovereignty as immediate. LAT attempts to answer the question of how likely it is that China will actually invade Taiwan?

So how likely is that? In the short run, not very. Taiwan is a flash point, and the possibility of military conflict with China can never be ruled out. But the danger has decreased markedly this year with the landslide victory of Taiwan’s Nationalist Party, which ran on a platform of improving strained ties with the mainland.

While the LAT is correct that a spike in Chinese aggression toward Taiwan will most likely not happen in the short-run, particularly this year, the threat is real and it is something that both sides are preparing for.

China Ramps Up Nuclear Presence in Indian Ocean

New satellite photos have revealed a stunning development in China’s naval forces in the Indian Ocean region (IOR). An underground nuclear submarine base on the southern tip of China’s Hainan Province has many speculating how this will affect the region’s balance of power.

Asia Times Online has more…

According to reports, commercial satellite images indicate that the Chinese are building a massive strategic naval base on Hainan island, in the South China Sea, south of Hong Kong. This confirms suspicions of several Asian nations since 2002 about the underground submarine base.

A reputed British daily has described the base as a “vast, James Bond-style edifice capable of concealing up to 20 nuclear-powered submarines and which will enable China to project its power across the region”.

Nuclear submarines can remain under water longer than conventional diesel-electric submarines and are thus difficult to detect. They are also capable of firing nuclear warheads.

These recent satellite images have caused alarm in New Delhi and among regional military experts, who understand that China’s military expansion into the IOR sphere will only raise tensions with India who has long dominated the region with naval superiority.

The Times of India assesses the situation…

China and India…are fighting for the same strategic space in the IOR, with the former hugely dependent on the oil shipping sea lanes passing through the region. Much more than Pakistan, Indian defence experts view China as the real long-term military threat.

There is concern over the stark military asymmetry with China, with the latter’s military budget showing straight double-digit hikes for the last two decades.

China, of course, has a very active cruise and ballistic missile programme, which includes the new DF-31 and DF-31A road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles.

It’s leagues ahead of India in virtually all aspects of military projects. Take submarines, for instance. To India’s 16 conventional diesel-electric submarines, China has 57 attack submarines, including a dozen of them nuclear ones.

Feeling the Heat

The Times also highlights the strategic Sino-India chess match that China seems to be winning…

Apart from this military imbalance, India remains apprehensive of China’s strategic moves in the region. With its “string of pearls” strategy, China has already encircled India by assiduously forging maritime linkages with eastern Africa, Seychelles, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar, among other countries.

India has tried to counter this spreading arc of Chinese influence only in recent times by trying to build maritime bridges with countries in the IOR as well as the Asia-Pacific region. Though experts hold that China’s SSBN, ballistic missile and other military programmes are at this point in time primarily directed against any move by the US to intervene in the Taiwan Strait, India will have to keep a close watch on the People’s Liberation Army’s expanding capabilities.

A Changing of the Guard in Russia

Today, in the pomp and glory of the Kremlin’s St. Andrew’s Hall, Russian President Vladimir Putin officially relinquished his post as the Russian Federation’s top leader. His successor and long-time protege, Dmitri Medvedev, takes the reins of a country that has grown increasingly dependent on its oil and gas wealth to fund its reemergence on the global stage. Russia has also found its stride in confronting the West on a host of foreign policy issues, often using energy as a diplomatic sword.

For now though, the international community and Kremlin-watchers alike remain fixated on how this unlikely power arrangement will play out. Putin has been nominated to take up the post of Prime Minister (previously held by Medvedev) and appointed leader of the dominant United Russia Party. Medvedev, meanwhile, campaigned on continuing the ‘Putin Plan,’ and it remains to be seen how much of his own person he will be.

The first Russian leader to not have any known ties to the KGB or Communist Party, some are hopeful that Medvedev may actually prove to be a very promising leader for Russia. This hope, however, will be largely based on how he meanders through the shark-ridden waters of Kremlin politics during his first months in office.

For now, Medvedev will remain veiled from any major challenge of his authority, as Putin has clearly made it known that he intends to afford his successor all of the support he needs as he works to get himself situated in the Kremlin.

Marshall Goldman in today’s IHT writes about some of the internal politics that Putin will prove useful in shielding Medvedev from…

Initially at least, Medvedev will need Putin, if for no other reason than to protect his flank from being undermined by some of the siloviki (law and order types) who have been brought to Moscow and into the Kremlin by Putin. They think of themselves as the rightful heirs who should have been selected to take over Putin’s office and resent Medvedev’s selection.

While Putin used these siloviki to push out and replace most of the original oligarchs (including Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former head of the Yukos Oil Company who is now serving an eight-year prison term in Siberia), they now have settled in and taken over many of the companies that were privatized in the 1990s. So now these new oligarchs have not only money but KGB and insider connections. This will make it difficult for Medvedev to push them out and replace them with his own supporters as Putin was able to do when the oligarchs only had money to protect their holdings.

The host of challenges confronting Medvedev from ‘Day One’ are enormous. Reuters highlights just a few of these…

They include rampant corruption, rising inflation, a falling population, sickly industry and agriculture and increasingly tense relations with former Soviet neighbors and the West.

Putin has been accused by domestic critics and Western governments of trampling on human rights and reining in freedoms won after the collapse of Soviet communism in the 1990s. He has reasserted the state’s grip on the Russian economy and business.

To say that Medvedev has his work cut out for him is an understatement. Russia is currently entangled in so many issues across the globe that it will take some time for the new President to get a grip on things. For now, Medvedev seems eager to focus on domestic issues facing everyday Russians.

In broad strokes laid out before the guests gathered to hear his inauguration address, Medvedev proclaimed that “…It is very important to understand that availability of justice, the general right to freedom and achievements in fighting corruption are integral to the right citizens have to get true information…We must defend the real independence of mass media, which provides feedback between civil society and various branches of power.”

The question that remains at the forefront of everyone’s mind is, can Medvedev deliver. And if so, how is he going to do it with the long shadow of Vladimir Putin placed firmly behind him and the former KGB apparatus surrounding him.

VOA quotes Yevgenia Albats, a Russian radio talk show host, who says the jury is still out. “It’s really hard to say whether we do, whether we are going to have a new president, whether we are going to have a puppet in the Kremlin and president Putin who will become prime minister will keep a grip over all power structures in this country. I don’t know the answer yet.”

Tibetan Blogger in China Faces Many Challenges

The Washington Post today highlights the challenges facing a Tibetan blogger, writer and poet, named Woeser, who is living in Beijing.

In her quest to chronicle the struggles of the Tibetan people, Woeser has found it difficult to continue her work due intimidation by the Chinese government.

Her books are banned here and three different blogs she maintained on Chinese servers have been shut down in the past two years — on government orders, a friend at one of the Internet companies told her. Her current blog, woeser.middle-way.net, is hosted on a computer server in the United States, but even that one temporarily succumbed to an attack April 26.

Despite these challenges, however, she tells the Post with determination, “I feel I have a responsibility to do this.”

Tibet Writes, cites Beijing writer-scholar Wang Li-Xiong, who believes that Tibetan writers like Woeser are critical to providing alternative forms of information in China…

“The fact that they have paid the high price of losing the language of their nation to gain such fluency in Chinese can also be interpreted as a reversal of something negative into positive.”

The feeling among Tibet Watchers like Wang is that up until now the experience of Tibet has been voiceless within China due to censorship, the language barrier and the distortions created by Beijing propaganda.

They see writers like Woeser as Tibet’s ’public intellectuals’ who have the literary and linguistic skills to play an important role by interacting with China’s populace and authorities through publishing, the media, internet and by mixing in the PRC’s mainstream.

Their articulation of Tibet’s ’otherness’ is seen as a powerful weapon to regain national equality and resist, and even disarm, the ’cultural imperialism’ imposed upon Tibet under Chinese rule.

Woeser has also been a critical information source for those outside of China. Through her writing and wealth of contacts in Tibet, the world has been able to more accurately monitor the sequence of events stemming from the most recent crackdown by Chinese authorities in Tibet.

Reprinted by Epoch Times, here is an excerpt from an April 12, 2008 post by Woeser…

A Japanese reporter said that Taktser, a small village in Pingan County in Qinghai’s Xining City, is the Dalai Lama’s hometown. Now the front doors of the old house are closely shut. The Qinghai provincial judicial authorities posted notices on walls on both sides of the main entrance. The notice in both Chinese and Tibetan is dated April 2. The Chinese version roughly says that posting and distributing any logos or flyers that endanger national security are prohibited. Manufacturing and distributing the Dalai Lama’s portraits or photos is also prohibited. The notice also reads, “Realizing one’s errors and mending one’s ways is the only way out for lawbreakers. Those who surrender and plead guilty or report other lawbreakers will receive a lesser or mitigated punishment.” The notice also points out that the general public will be commended and rewarded for reporting lawbreakers. It is said that there are police officers patrolling during the day, and the roads leading to the village have been blocked.

The latest news says on the evening of the 10th, a large number of military vehicles entered the Drepung Monastery again. On the 11th, roads leading to it were blocked. It is said that many hungry monks, who have been stranded for 30 days in the temple surrounded by military police, are going to come down the mountain to seek lifting of the martial law. Other sources say that there may have been an incident triggered by military police who made arrests by breaking into the temple. The exact reason of this military deployment is not yet known, but there are reported casualties. While communication with the temple is still blocked, the news has already spread across Lhasa. The Tibetans are filled with anxiety.

Abkhazia Joins List of Deteriorating Conflicts

In its monthly report, the International Crisis Group lists Georgia among the “eight actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in April 2008.” Georgia has joined in odd company with Burundi, Haiti, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Uganda, Yemen, Zimbabwe as a potential or current conflict zone.

Such a distinction was certainly not the vision of those who helped to usher in Georgia’s 2003 Rose Revolution, but a confluence of events (see: A Race to the Bottom in Georgia) has led to the current stalemate with Russia.

In Slate on Monday, Anne Applebaum ponders the “possibility that Abkhazia could become the starting point of a larger war.” She says that “Abkhazia ranks right up there with Nagorno-Karabakh, Dagestan, South Ossetia, and all the other forgotten Caucasian cities and statelets that no one wants to think too hard about but where, occasionally, something really awful happens.”

True or not (the international community has kept close watch over these frozen conflicts since their inception), events in Abkhazia may in fact lead to chain reaction that could spiral into military action.

In Monday’s Moscow Times, Alexander Golts, deputy editor of the online newspaper Yezhednevny Zhurnal, leaves us with this thought…

Recall how World War I began. States wanted only to protect their national pride and frighten their opponents. But at some point, the tensions escalated sharply and, coupled with mass mobilizations of their armies, the conflict in the Balkans spun out of control with tragic consequences for the entire world. This scenario could be repeated in the Caucasus.

Chechnya a Challenge for Medvedev

On the eve of the inauguration of Dmitri Medvedev as Russia’s next president, the country is entangled in a slew of entanglements. Whether it be with the West over NATO enlargement or Kosovo, the United States over its proposed European-hosted missile defense systems, or frozen conflict zones in countries like Georgia.

While all of these issues will prove an immediate challenge for Medvedev, he will also face the continuing tensions in the restive Russian province of Chechnya. Recalling President Putin’s own response to unrest in Chechnya, where he moved with brutal force against Chechen militants shortly after taking over the reins of the Kremlin, Medvedev will likely follow a similar path.

Despite progress made in Chechnya and a rebuilding of the capital city, Grozny, and outlaying areas, Chechnya remains a very dangerous place and the fragile piece that currently governs the region is being held in place by an oppressive administrative government in Grozny backed by force from Moscow.

While large-scale military actions have ended, smaller attacks continue in Chechnya

Six policemen were murdered in two separate incidents in Chechnya over the weekend. One involved a metal shrapnel-loaded bomb and the other came after a police patrol came under fire from automatic weapons. Chechen rebels have continued small-scale attacks against pro-Russian security forces and police patrols have become the norm.

From the AP…

A remote-controlled bomb exploded on a roadside in the capital of troubled Chechnya, leaving five police officers dead, while another officer was fatally shot near the city, regional authorities said Monday.

The regional Emergency Situations Ministry said the bomb blast took place late Sunday in the city of Grozny. Two other officers were seriously wounded in the attack, the ministry said.

The police were part of a squad of 10 that was working to tighten security in the city ahead of this week’s inauguration of new Russian president Dmitry Medvedev and the celebration of Victory Day, which commemorates the 1945 defeat of Nazi Germany.

Will Putin Remain in Charge?

On Sunday, the Washington Post took a stab at the question that has consumed Kremlin-watchers since Russian President Vladimir Putin tapped Dmitri Medvedev to run as his successor. Medvedev will assume the Russian presidency on Wednesday. While Putin is largely expected to assume the prime minister’s post and will direct the dominant United Russia party, a lot remains to be determined how power will be divided among the two men.

From WaPo…

…What remains uncertain is how Putin intends to exercise this power, and to what end. Is he simply biding his time before returning to the Kremlin as president, consolidating his new position so as to rule out the unlikely possibility that Medvedev might warm to the presidency and turn against him? Or has he been careful to maintain so much power in order to protect Medvedev while the neophyte president establishes his own base in a system that would devour him without Putin’s oversight? Or is there no grand strategy, and the two men, while agreeing to share power, have not looked beyond the horizon?

Olga Kryshtanovskaya, director of the Moscow-based Center for the Study of Elites, is certain of one thing. “I’m absolutely sure that Putin is coming back” as president, she said. “Whether that happens in two or four years, I don’t know. But he will be coming back for 14 years, two new seven-year terms.”

Kryshtanovskaya points to calls by political figures such as Gryzlov for parliamentary and presidential elections to be held two years apart rather than close together, as they are now. Splitting the polls that way could trigger a new presidential election in 2010. United Russia leaders have also spoken of extending the presidential term to seven years.

Such amendments to the electoral law could see Putin back in the Kremlin until 2024. Nor has Putin ruled out a return to the Kremlin; indeed, he has publicly flirted with the idea on occasion.

“I think Medvedev is a willing participant in all of this,” Kryshtanovskaya said. “Of course, there is a very small chance that Medvedev might betray him and become a real president, and some of Putin’s moves recently are to protect himself from that.”

But Sergey Markov, a United Russia lawmaker and political analyst, said that if Medvedev proves up to the job and broadly follows the policies set by Putin, then the former president will leave the stage in a year or two.

“Putin is Medvedev’s political father,” Markov said. “If Medvedev is successful, Putin will step aside. He wants to give the chance to someone else. He will not become a simple pensioner, but he is not obsessed with keeping power. Of course, if Medvedev fails, he can return.” Read more…