China Ramps Up Nuclear Presence in Indian Ocean

New satellite photos have revealed a stunning development in China’s naval forces in the Indian Ocean region (IOR). An underground nuclear submarine base on the southern tip of China’s Hainan Province has many in India and throughout the region speculating how this will affect the region’s balance of power.

Asia Times Online has more…

According to reports, commercial satellite images indicate that the Chinese are building a massive strategic naval base on Hainan island, in the South China Sea, south of Hong Kong. This confirms suspicions of several Asian nations since 2002 about the underground submarine base.

A reputed British daily has described the base as a “vast, James Bond-style edifice capable of concealing up to 20 nuclear-powered submarines and which will enable China to project its power across the region”.

Nuclear submarines can remain under water longer than conventional diesel-electric submarines and are thus difficult to detect. They are also capable of firing nuclear warheads.

These recent satellite images have caused alarm in New Delhi and among regional military experts, who understand that China’s military expansion into the IOR sphere will only raise tensions with India who has long dominated the region with naval superiority.

The Times of India assesses the situation…

China and India…are fighting for the same strategic space in the IOR, with the former hugely dependent on the oil shipping sea lanes passing through the region. Much more than Pakistan, Indian defence experts view China as the real long-term military threat.

There is concern over the stark military asymmetry with China, with the latter’s military budget showing straight double-digit hikes for the last two decades.

China, of course, has a very active cruise and ballistic missile programme, which includes the new DF-31 and DF-31A road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles.

It’s leagues ahead of India in virtually all aspects of military projects. Take submarines, for instance. To India’s 16 conventional diesel-electric submarines, China has 57 attack submarines, including a dozen of them nuclear ones.

Feeling the Heat

The Times also highlights the strategic Sino-India chess match that China seems to be winning…

Apart from this military imbalance, India remains apprehensive of China’s strategic moves in the region. With its “string of pearls” strategy, China has already encircled India by assiduously forging maritime linkages with eastern Africa, Seychelles, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar, among other countries.

India has tried to counter this spreading arc of Chinese influence only in recent times by trying to build maritime bridges with countries in the IOR as well as the Asia-Pacific region. Though experts hold that China’s SSBN, ballistic missile and other military programmes are at this point in time primarily directed against any move by the US to intervene in the Taiwan Strait, India will have to keep a close watch on the People’s Liberation Army’s expanding capabilities.

A Changing of the Guard in Russia

Today, in the pomp and glory of the Kremlin’s St. Andrew’s Hall, Russian President Vladimir Putin officially relinquished his post as the Russian Federation’s top leader. His successor and long-time protege, Dmitri Medvedev, takes the reins of a country that has grown increasingly dependent on it oil and gas wealth to fund its reemergence on the global stage. Russia has also found its stride in confronting the West on a host of foreign policy issues, often using energy as a diplomatic sword.

For now though, the international community and Kremlin-watchers alike remain fixated on how this unlikely power arrangement will play out, with Putin nominated to take up the post of Prime Minister (previously held by Medvedev) and the leader of the dominant United Russia Party. Medvedev, meanwhile, campaigned on continuing the ‘Putin Plan,’ and it remains to be seen how much of his own person he will be.

The first Russian leader to not have any known ties to the KGB or Communist Party, some are hopeful that Medvedev may actually prove to be a very promising leader for Russia. This hope, however, will be largely based on how he meanders through the shark-ridden waters of Kremlin politics during his first months in office.

For now, Medvedev will remain veiled from any major challenge of his authority, as Putin has clearly made it known that he intends to afford his successor all of the support he needs as he works to get himself situated in the Kremlin.

Marshall Goldman in today’s IHT writes about some of the internal politics that Putin will prove useful in shielding Medvedev from…

Initially at least, Medvedev will need Putin, if for no other reason than to protect his flank from being undermined by some of the siloviki (law and order types) who have been brought to Moscow and into the Kremlin by Putin. They think of themselves as the rightful heirs who should have been selected to take over Putin’s office and resent Medvedev’s selection.

While Putin used these siloviki to push out and replace most of the original oligarchs (including Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former head of the Yukos Oil Company who is now serving an eight-year prison term in Siberia), they now have settled in and taken over many of the companies that were privatized in the 1990s. So now these new oligarchs have not only money but KGB and insider connections. This will make it difficult for Medvedev to push them out and replace them with his own supporters as Putin was able to do when the oligarchs only had money to protect their holdings.

The host of challenges confronting Medvedev from ‘Day One’ are enormous. Reuters highlights just a few of these…

They include rampant corruption, rising inflation, a falling population, sickly industry and agriculture and increasingly tense relations with former Soviet neighbors and the West.

Putin has been accused by domestic critics and Western governments of trampling on human rights and reining in freedoms won after the collapse of Soviet communism in the 1990s. He has reasserted the state’s grip on the Russian economy and business.

To say that Medvedev has his work cut out for him is an understatement. Russia is currently entangled in so many issues across the globe that it will take some time for the new President to get a grip on things. For now, Medvedev seems eager to focus on domestic issues facing everyday Russians.

In broad strokes laid out before the guests gathered to hear his inauguration address, Medvedev proclaimed that “…It is very important to understand that availability of justice, the general right to freedom and achievements in fighting corruption are integral to the right citizens have to get true information…We must defend the real independence of mass media, which provides feedback between civil society and various branches of power.”

The question that remains at the forefront of everyone’s mind is, can Medvedev deliver. And if so, how is he going to do it with the long shadow of Vladimir Putin placed firmly behind him and the former KGB apparatus surrounding him.

VOA quotes Yevgenia Albats, a Russian radio talk show host, who says the jury is still out. “It’s really hard to say whether we do, whether we are going to have a new president, whether we are going to have a puppet in the Kremlin and president Putin who will become prime minister will keep a grip over all power structures in this country. I don’t know the answer yet.”

Tibetan Blogger in China Faces Many Challenges

The Washington Post today highlights the challenges facing a Tibetan blogger, writer and poet, named Woeser, who is living in Beijing.

In her quest to chronicle the struggles of the Tibetan people, Woeser has found it difficult to continue her work due intimidation by the Chinese government.

Her books are banned here and three different blogs she maintained on Chinese servers have been shut down in the past two years — on government orders, a friend at one of the Internet companies told her. Her current blog, woeser.middle-way.net, is hosted on a computer server in the United States, but even that one temporarily succumbed to an attack April 26.

Despite these challenges, however, she tells the Post with determination, “I feel I have a responsibility to do this.”

Tibet Writes, cites Beijing writer-scholar Wang Li-Xiong, who believes that Tibetan writers like Woeser are critical to providing alternative forms of information in China…

“The fact that they have paid the high price of losing the language of their nation to gain such fluency in Chinese can also be interpreted as a reversal of something negative into positive.”

The feeling among Tibet Watchers like Wang is that up until now the experience of Tibet has been voiceless within China due to censorship, the language barrier and the distortions created by Beijing propaganda.

They see writers like Woeser as Tibet’s ’public intellectuals’ who have the literary and linguistic skills to play an important role by interacting with China’s populace and authorities through publishing, the media, internet and by mixing in the PRC’s mainstream.

Their articulation of Tibet’s ’otherness’ is seen as a powerful weapon to regain national equality and resist, and even disarm, the ’cultural imperialism’ imposed upon Tibet under Chinese rule.

Woeser has also been a critical information source for those outside of China. Through her writing and wealth of contacts in Tibet, the world has been able to more accurately monitor the sequence of events stemming from the most recent crackdown by Chinese authorities in Tibet.

Reprinted by Epoch Times, here is an excerpt from an April 12, 2008 post by Woeser…

A Japanese reporter said that Taktser, a small village in Pingan County in Qinghai’s Xining City, is the Dalai Lama’s hometown. Now the front doors of the old house are closely shut. The Qinghai provincial judicial authorities posted notices on walls on both sides of the main entrance. The notice in both Chinese and Tibetan is dated April 2. The Chinese version roughly says that posting and distributing any logos or flyers that endanger national security are prohibited. Manufacturing and distributing the Dalai Lama’s portraits or photos is also prohibited. The notice also reads, “Realizing one’s errors and mending one’s ways is the only way out for lawbreakers. Those who surrender and plead guilty or report other lawbreakers will receive a lesser or mitigated punishment.” The notice also points out that the general public will be commended and rewarded for reporting lawbreakers. It is said that there are police officers patrolling during the day, and the roads leading to the village have been blocked.

The latest news says on the evening of the 10th, a large number of military vehicles entered the Drepung Monastery again. On the 11th, roads leading to it were blocked. It is said that many hungry monks, who have been stranded for 30 days in the temple surrounded by military police, are going to come down the mountain to seek lifting of the martial law. Other sources say that there may have been an incident triggered by military police who made arrests by breaking into the temple. The exact reason of this military deployment is not yet known, but there are reported casualties. While communication with the temple is still blocked, the news has already spread across Lhasa. The Tibetans are filled with anxiety.

Abkhazia Joins List of Deteriorating Conflicts

In its monthly report, the International Crisis Group lists Georgia among the “eight actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in April 2008.” Georgia has joined in odd company with Burundi, Haiti, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Uganda, Yemen, Zimbabwe as a potential or current conflict zone.

Such a distinction was certainly not the vision of those who helped to usher in Georgia’s 2003 Rose Revolution, but a confluence of events (see: A Race to the Bottom in Georgia) has led to the current stalemate with Russia.

In Slate on Monday, Anne Applebaum ponders the “possibility that Abkhazia could become the starting point of a larger war.” She says that “Abkhazia ranks right up there with Nagorno-Karabakh, Dagestan, South Ossetia, and all the other forgotten Caucasian cities and statelets that no one wants to think too hard about but where, occasionally, something really awful happens.”

True or not (the international community has kept close watch over these frozen conflicts since their inception), events in Abkhazia may in fact lead to chain reaction that could spiral into military action.

In Monday’s Moscow Times, Alexander Golts, deputy editor of the online newspaper Yezhednevny Zhurnal, leaves us with this thought…

Recall how World War I began. States wanted only to protect their national pride and frighten their opponents. But at some point, the tensions escalated sharply and, coupled with mass mobilizations of their armies, the conflict in the Balkans spun out of control with tragic consequences for the entire world. This scenario could be repeated in the Caucasus.

Chechnya a Challenge for Medvedev

On the eve of the inauguration of Dmitri Medvedev as Russia’s next president, the country is entangled in a slew of entanglements. Whether it be with the West over NATO enlargement or Kosovo, the United States over its proposed European-hosted missile defense systems, or frozen conflict zones in countries like Georgia.

While all of these issues will prove an immediate challenge for Medvedev, he will also face the continuing tensions in the restive Russian province of Chechnya. Recalling President Putin’s own response to unrest in Chechnya, where he moved with brutal force against Chechen militants shortly after taking over the reins of the Kremlin, Medvedev will likely follow a similar path.

Despite progress made in Chechnya and a rebuilding of the capital city, Grozny, and outlaying areas, Chechnya remains a very dangerous place and the fragile piece that currently governs the region is being held in place by an oppressive administrative government in Grozny backed by force from Moscow.

While large-scale military actions have ended, smaller attacks continue in Chechnya

Six policemen were murdered in two separate incidents in Chechnya over the weekend. One involved a metal shrapnel-loaded bomb and the other came after a police patrol came under fire from automatic weapons. Chechen rebels have continued small-scale attacks against pro-Russian security forces and police patrols have become the norm.

From the AP…

A remote-controlled bomb exploded on a roadside in the capital of troubled Chechnya, leaving five police officers dead, while another officer was fatally shot near the city, regional authorities said Monday.

The regional Emergency Situations Ministry said the bomb blast took place late Sunday in the city of Grozny. Two other officers were seriously wounded in the attack, the ministry said.

The police were part of a squad of 10 that was working to tighten security in the city ahead of this week’s inauguration of new Russian president Dmitry Medvedev and the celebration of Victory Day, which commemorates the 1945 defeat of Nazi Germany.

Will Putin Remain in Charge?

On Sunday, the Washington Post took a stab at the question that has consumed Kremlin-watchers since Russian President Vladimir Putin tapped Dmitri Medvedev to run as his successor. Medvedev will assume the Russian presidency on Wednesday. While Putin is largely expected to assume the prime minister’s post and will direct the dominant United Russia party, a lot remains to be determined how power will be divided among the two men.

From WaPo…

…What remains uncertain is how Putin intends to exercise this power, and to what end. Is he simply biding his time before returning to the Kremlin as president, consolidating his new position so as to rule out the unlikely possibility that Medvedev might warm to the presidency and turn against him? Or has he been careful to maintain so much power in order to protect Medvedev while the neophyte president establishes his own base in a system that would devour him without Putin’s oversight? Or is there no grand strategy, and the two men, while agreeing to share power, have not looked beyond the horizon?

Olga Kryshtanovskaya, director of the Moscow-based Center for the Study of Elites, is certain of one thing. “I’m absolutely sure that Putin is coming back” as president, she said. “Whether that happens in two or four years, I don’t know. But he will be coming back for 14 years, two new seven-year terms.”

Kryshtanovskaya points to calls by political figures such as Gryzlov for parliamentary and presidential elections to be held two years apart rather than close together, as they are now. Splitting the polls that way could trigger a new presidential election in 2010. United Russia leaders have also spoken of extending the presidential term to seven years.

Such amendments to the electoral law could see Putin back in the Kremlin until 2024. Nor has Putin ruled out a return to the Kremlin; indeed, he has publicly flirted with the idea on occasion.

“I think Medvedev is a willing participant in all of this,” Kryshtanovskaya said. “Of course, there is a very small chance that Medvedev might betray him and become a real president, and some of Putin’s moves recently are to protect himself from that.”

But Sergey Markov, a United Russia lawmaker and political analyst, said that if Medvedev proves up to the job and broadly follows the policies set by Putin, then the former president will leave the stage in a year or two.

“Putin is Medvedev’s political father,” Markov said. “If Medvedev is successful, Putin will step aside. He wants to give the chance to someone else. He will not become a simple pensioner, but he is not obsessed with keeping power. Of course, if Medvedev fails, he can return.” Read more…

Central Europe Summit Calls for Complete Integration

Leaders meeting in Macedonian city of Ohrid this weekend, used the 15th summit of the presidents of the Central European Initiative (CEI) to urge both NATO and the European Uniion to undertake a full integration of Europe, including many Western Balkan and East European members that currently remain outside of the two most influential Western clubs.

CEI was initially founded on the principle of helping nations in Central and Eastern Europe in their post-communist transition and integration into West European structures like the EU and NATO. Currently comprised of 18 members, since post-enlargement for many CEE countries, CEI has taken on the task of helping the balance of its members achieve full European integration. This includes helping member nations through financial assistance and technical guidance to achieve a market economy, improve their nation’s democracies and social development. Such efforts often coincide with EU requirements for accession.

Kosovo Left Out

Absent from this year’s CEI Summit was newly-independent Kosovo. The nation declared unilateral independence from Serbia in February 2008 and was largely backed by the West, including the United States. Despite this wide recognition, CEI member Serbia does not recognize Kosovo’s statehood and did not accept their invitation to the Summit.

IHT reported on Kosovo’s reaction to being left out…

Kosovo’s leaders reacted with annoyance and insisted an independent Kosovo was a reality that had to be recognized.

“Nobody can ignore the independence of Kosovo,” Kosovo Prime Minister Hashim Thaci told reporters on Tuesday while criticizing the Macedonian government.

His deputy, Hajredin Kuqi, told The Associated Press Thursday that he hoped Macedonia’s failure to offer an invitation was due to technicalities in preparing for the event.

“There can be no solution to regional issues without Kosovo’s active participation,” Kuqi said.

While true that Kosovo remains a key part of any consideration regarding the future security and stability of the Balkans and of wider Southeastern Europe, their absence may have allowed for CEI to address a wider range of issues rather than strictly focusing on Kosovo controversy.

China’s Deadly Viral Outbreak Again Highlights Public Health Concerns

China has moved into full damage control mode, ordering a nationwide alert and mobilization of national health assets, after the outbreak of a deadly virus known as Enterovirus 71 (EV71) has claimed the lives of nearly two dozen children and infected thousands more.

The virus, which has primarily infected young children, often inflicts mouth sores, a rash with blisters, and a debilitating fever. While most of those infected with the virus have recovered within a week or so, some have died and the virus seems to be spreading from the east-central provinces Hubei and Anhui to the south.

China’s Xinhua news agency cites a provincial health department spokesman as saying that “so far, 4,529 children have been sickened by the virus…in 15 cities in Anhui. The cities with the most cases were Fuyang, Huainan, Bozhou, Bengbu and Hefei.

A SARs-like cover-up all over again?

A reminder of the SARs pneumonia outbreak debacle in 2003 where officials were found to have under reported those infected as well as casualty numbers, China’s government has ordered the Health Ministry to issue a nationwide alert and take immediate actions to contain and quash the outbreak.

However, there is evidence that local health officials may have delayed their response to the EV71 outbreak which began in March. Such negligence has drawn rebuke from some national Chinese media outlets.

The NYTimes reports…

The Chinese media have not been shy about criticizing local officials who suppress information about infectious diseases and other kinds of bad news. In mid-April, several media outlets noted, authorities in Fuyang who were confronted by reporters denied that there was a problem. Two weeks later, after more than a dozen children had died, they were forced to acknowledge the outbreak.

In an editorial headlined “Tragic Costs of Delay,” China Daily, the official English-language newspaper, cited the SARS epidemic and the powdered milk scandal and chastised government for its sluggish response to the most recent health crisis. “The memory of the last tragedy only adds to the bitterness of the new one,” it said.

The BBC reports denial of a cover-up by Chinese officials…

The Chinese health ministry has rejected charges that it has failed to handle the situation properly, arguing that medical teams had been trying to work out what the illness was.

Either way, this current outbreak, and lag in reporting by the government, highlights China’s fragile public health system. The lack of transparency and accountability on the part of the Chinese government has made the possibility of such public health failures in reporting diseases a continuing threat.

A dash by China’s public health officials to the Summer Games

China must now scramble to get this outbreak under control, particularly as the nation prepares for the arrival of athletes from around the world for this summer’s Olympic Games in Beijing. Xinhua reports that on Saturday, China’s Ministry of Health issued a circular “that ordered local bureaus to do their best to prevent and control infectious diseases, since mass outbreaks could easily occur at this time of year.”

The circular goes on to state “since spring, epidemics of HFMD [EV71), hepatitis A and measles have broken out in several counties…All local health bureaus should give top priority to the prevention and control of infectious diseases especially in rural areas so as to protect public health ahead of the Olympics.”

Such an outbreak of any of the aforementioned viruses would be devastating to the Beijing Olympic Games, which have come under intense international protest following the crackdown on Tibetan activist in early April and China’s continued investment and arms sales to Sudan’s government, which has been held responsible for the deaths of thousands in Darfur.

Beijing Olympics Packing List: Tamiflu?

This week a leading World Health Organization official in Italy, who deals with health-related tourism guidance for travelers, reportedly recommended that visitors attending the Summer Olympics in Beijing should bring the antiviral avian flu drug Tamiflu with them in the event they are exposed to the virus, also known as H5N1.

While the WHO denies the report by Italian news agency, ANSA, three people have been infected with the disease thus far in 2008, and more than 30 cases have been reported since 2003 with 20 of them fatal.

Serbia’s Painfully Wishful EU Bid

After a gut wrenching blow suffered by the unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo in February 2008, Serbia was left empty handed and outraged by international backing for Kosovo’s statehood.

This move seemed to be yet another piece taken from those who believe that reconstituting Greater Serbia should continue to be ultimate goal of the state. For the more moderate thinkers and mainstream Serbs, Kosovo’s Western-backed move toward independence has delivered a stinging sense of both anger and betrayal.

Some have focused their anger on Western powers and large backers for Kosovo statehood, including attacks on foreign embassies and threats against their interests in the region. For instance, the U.S. Embassy in the Serbia’s captial, Belgrade, was attacked by rioters and partially set ablaze after Kosovo’s announced independence. This did not draw immediate reaction from the government of Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, suggesting tacit support for the actions.

Others in Serbia have focused their anger on the failure of their government to prevent Kosovo from seceding from Serbia, thereby making Serbia’s pro-Western politicians increasingly unpopular.

Anti-EU Strains Swell

One result of the fallout from Kosovo independence is the increasingly unpopularity of the European Union in Serbia and divisions among its leaders over joining the 27-nation bloc.

This was on display Tuesday as Serbia’s pro-Western president, Boris Tadic, placed Serbia on a path toward membership by signing a Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU. Such an agreement is a necessary precursor to any successful membership bid.

Makfax vesnik reports on these divisions…

Tuesday’s signing of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) between Serbia and the European Union triggered diametrically opposite reactions among Serbian public.

In a number of towns across Serbia, President Boris Tadic’s supporters celebrated the signing of SAA, which puts Serbia on the track to EU membership.

The outgoing Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, on the other hand, threatened that after elections, the new government and the new parliament will annul the SAA.

EU Agreement Stirs Feelings of Division and Betrayal

The BBC notes that “Belgrade’s pre-membership deal with the EU is revealed by Serbia’s press as deeply divisive both for its political establishment and its people.”

Most dailies focus on the divisions between pro-Western President Boris Tadic and his Prime Minister, Vojislav Kostunica, who has promised to have parliament annul the agreement at the first opportunity.

“Agreement with EU signed, Serbia divided,” says the top headline in the pro-government daily Politika.

“The signing of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU has caused divided reactions among the parties,” the paper says, adding that that the deal looks set to make parliamentary elections in May “even more tense”.

The respected evening tabloid Vecernje Novosti agrees, predicting that both the pro-Western and nationalist camps will try to make political capital out of the deal.

While division is one aspect of the reaction from the Serbs over the SAA signing, betrayal is another.

The BBC goes on to list some other newspapers highlighting “the anger of nationalist Serbs, who were infuriated by most EU member states’ recognition of Kosovo’s declaration of independence.”

“Serbian pigs celebrate: They have given Kosovo away,” the top-selling populist tabloid Kurir sneers in its front-page headline, acidly contrasting the EU members’ stance on Kosovo with EU regulations requiring the humane treatment of pigs and cows - including the “2001 Pig Welfare Directive”.

“Betrayal of Serbia” is the even more strident headline in the nationalist tabloid Pravda, while a commentator laments what he says is Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica’s failure to oppose the pro-European course of President Tadic.

“In addition to goodwill, one needs to have strength, courage and readiness to solve problems. Had Kostunica had that, Serbia would not have been in the dark today, without hope,” the commentator laments.

EU is an Increasingly Hard Sell in Serbia

Certainly, EU membership is a formidible goal for any European nation seeking integration with its neighbors. The financial gains and immediate seat at the table of Europe’s decision-makers is a guaranteed boost for any country formerly under the flag of communist domination and now struggling to survive both as a democracy and a market economy.

For Serbia, a nation that has been plagued by war, divisive and deadly nationalism, and ruthless political leaders like Slobodan Milosevic, an opportunity to gain a foothold in the European community via the EU is an especially important step in its post-war development and move toward the West.

The problem is that the betrayal and anger left over from Kosovo and after a decade of many ‘promises made and promises broken’ by the West, the Serbian public is not rushing with grand excitement to join the EU, let alone signalling readiness to make the necessary sacrifices to fulfill the EU’s grueling membership criteria.

Agreement Signed Despite Failure to Turn Over War Criminals…

Tuesday’s signing of the SAA, has also reignited concerns that Serbia is getting a nod on EU membership progress, despite its failure to meet international demands that it hand over Serbia’s indicted war criminals to The Hague. This includes ex-Bosnian Serb leaders Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic, accused of involvement in the murder of 8,000 Muslims at Srebrenica in 1995.

One leader, Chairman of the Bosnian tripartite Presidency Haris Silajdžić, exclaimed his anger and frustration with the EU, while accusing Serbia of getting special treatment.

Belgrade news outlet B92 reports…

Silajdžić said that “she (Serbia) is refusing to arrest those indicted for genocide in Bosnia-Hercegovina.”

By signing this agreement, the EU has once more ignored the verdict of the International Court of Justice, “which Serbia is flagrantly violating by refusing to bring to justice the people responsible for the massacre of more than 8000 civilians,” reads a statement from Silajdžić’s cabinet.

“Although the EU’s practice is to strictly insist on the fulfillment of given conditions before intensifying relations with potential members, this last act proves that Serbia enjoys privileges like no other state,” he fumed.

He said that “some countries are lagging behind in the European integration process because of far less important conditions than the arrest of individuals responsible for the only genocide in Europe since the Second World War.”

Mr. Silajdžić fails to point out, however, that the SAA will not be implemented if these war criminals are not handed over. Germany’s Der Speigel reported, “Belgium and the Netherlands initially blocked the deal because of this lagging noncompliance (of handing over these war criminals). However, this week they softened their stance, settling for a compromise resolution that would make Serbia’s cooperation with the tribunal a necessary requirement for further steps towards EU membership.”

Serbia’s Domestic Politics Wrapped Around EU Agreement

In the Balkans, politics are very complicated indeed. Of course, some view the urgency for Serbia to secure an SAA with the EU a necessary political chip for pro-Western reformers heading into a parliamentary election on May 11th against a much-strengthened nationalist opposition.

EUBusiness has more on how signing the SAA will impact domestic politics in Serbia and the looming parliamentary elections…

Analysts say the signing of the SAA will influence the outcome of the snap parliamentary elections on May 11, effectively by shaping it as a referendum on Serbia’s European integration.

Pro-Western President Boris Tadic says Serbia has no alternative but to join the EU, while nationalists like outgoing Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica have sought to paint him as a traitor for doing deals with a group of nations that has backed Kosovo separatists.

“The signing of the SAA should clarify” the situation for voters confused by Serbia’s relations with the EU after Kosovo’s independence, said Svetlana Logar of political research institute Strategic Marketing.

“After this act, the EU certainly won’t send a message that Serbia has recognised the independence of Kosovo, which up until now has been the premise of some parties.

“The biggest confusion was caused by the status quo, and in this way a clarification of the situation is useful” to the pro-Western forces in the elections, Logar added.

Clarifying Serbia’s EU status post-Kosovo independence is just one of the many factors driving Tuesday’s agreement. Political forces on both sides of the country’s scheduled elections have seized the SAA as a chance to draw distinct differences between each other.

From the LA Times…

“Many enemies of the European future of Serbia have been frightening the citizens of Serbia that in the EU our identity will be endangered,” he said, referring to the ultranationalist political parties at home. He spoke in Serbian, and the remarks and signing ceremony were broadcast live on major Serbian television stations.

But Tadic’s rivals immediately seized on the accord as an election issue, portraying it as a sellout because, they maintain, Europe is trying to buy Belgrade’s acquiescence to Kosovo’s independence.

Vojislav Kostunica, the caretaker prime minister of Serbia, said Tadic was in effect accepting the independence of Kosovo, a “shameful and illegal” act. He said the next government would cancel the pact.

“We will never allow to anybody to sign [away] the independence of Kosovo on behalf of Serbia, and that is why today’s Tadic signature is worth absolutely nothing,” Kostunica said.

His party likened the signing of the pact to “the seal of Judas,” and others said they would move to have the president impeached once a new parliament is seated after the May 11 vote.

Tadic and his supporters argue that Serbia needs closer relations with the West to end its long, crippling isolation after atrocities committed by Serb forces in the Balkan wars made the nation a pariah.

“From today on, the path toward Serbia’s full EU integration is irreversible,” said Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic, a Tadic ally.

A Race to the Bottom in Georgia

Armed conflict between Russia and Georgia seemed ever more likely today after the Moscow moved more troops to Georgia’s separatist region of Abkhazia.

Georgia, who lost out on its bid for solidifying NATO membership earlier this month in Bucharest, has been locked in a bitter dispute with Russia over the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia for years. This conflict, however, has reached a breaking point in recent months as accusations have been launched by both sides over intimidating military tactics.

Georgia Poised for Attack?

Russian officials cite evidence that Georgia is poised to attack Abkhazia in an effort to restore rule in a region where the government in Tbilisi has long struggled to control.

The BBC reports…

A statement from the Russian foreign ministry said that “a bridgehead is being prepared for the start of military operations against Abkhazia”.

While Georgia denies any plans for attack, the Russian defense ministry claims on its website evidence of a build up of police and military forces in the Kodori region just on the Georgia-Abkhazia border.

The Ministry also posted these comments…

“Any attempt by Georgia to use force to resolve the conflicts, to adopt forceful measures against Russian peacekeepers or Russian citizens located on the territory of Abkhazia or South Ossetia, will meet with a suitable and tough response.”

Many in international circles have argued that Georgia’s failure to join NATO’s ‘membership action plan’ (MAP) and the unilateral declaration of independence in Kosovo backed by the West would lead to a dislodging of frozen conflicts in the volatile Caucasus region, namely in Abkhazia.

More on Abkhazia…

Currently, Russia has nearly 2,000 peacekeeping forces stationed in Abkhazia. It’s mandate was recently reaffirmed by the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Many Western countries, including the United States, continue to view Russia’s presence as a threat to Georgia’s security and support Tbilisi’s efforts to see the Russian forces withdrawn.

A Black Sea enclave and former resort for Soviet elite, the breakaway region of Abkhazia has its own capital, Sukhumi, and a functioning government. Propped up by the Kremlin, Abkhazia is not officially recognized by the international community as an independent state. Russia has vowed to defend its Abkhaz allies should they be attacked by Georgia in an effort to reclaim the breakaway territory.

In the early 1990s, Georgia fought a bloody war over Abkhazia and fellow breakaway region South Ossetia. Thousands died.

Georgia’s president Mikhail Saakashvilli has used the return of Abkhazia and South Ossetia key points in his political platform. So far, Saakashvilli’s efforts have fallen on deaf ears, as both Abkhazia and South Ossetia look to Russia for direction on any autonomy deal that would be cut with the Georgian government.

Russia has legitimized its presence in the region not simply through maintaining a military presence, but also through claims of citizenship. The Kremlin doled out Russian citizenship and passports to citizens in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia in an effort to further legitimize its interests in the region. Such actions also strengthen calls for Abkhazia, in particular, to join Russia.

In an effort seen by Tbilisi as further Russian encroachment, Vladimir Putin has ordered the Russian government to establish legal relationships with both Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In the meanwhile, cross-border clashes have proliferated in recent months, essentially thawing the frozen conflict.

Russians allegedly shoot down Georgian drone aircraft…

Check out this video provided by Georgian military commanders of a unmanned drone aircraft that they claim was shot down by a Russian missile.

High-Ranking Judge Murdered in Southern Russia

A top judge in Russia’s restive southern region of Ingushetia, Khasan Yandiyev, 51, was shot dead while changing a tire on his car at a filling station near the town of Karabulak.

Yandiyev, deputy chairman of Ingushetia’s Supreme Court, was a high-profile judge who handled trials of Muslim radicals and cases involving public corruption. His murder follows a spate recent attacks on Ingushi officials, troops and police. The assailants were unidentified and witnesses say they did not hear gunshots, although some are speculating the use of a silencer.

“No one heard the shot, perhaps it was a sniper or assailants used a gun with silencer,” he added saying that Yandiyev died of wounds in an ambulance car on the way to hospital.

The spokesman said an investigation was under way, but could give no further details.

Also in Ingushetia on Friday, in the village of Sagapshi, a police officer was gunned down by unknown assailants. Ingushetia has experienced an upsurge in violence.

A total of 192 militants and armed gang members were killed and more than 700 arrested in anti-terrorist operations in Russia’s North Caucasus last year. The Ingushi blame Muslim radicals for the spike in violence, while critics of the local government claim it is an example of ineffectiveness and corruption.

Nepal Goes to the Polls

Despite protests, boycotts and unrest throughout the country, many Naplis were determined to elect a government.

Nepal will be voting Thursday for an assembly made up of 601 members and will become the new parliament that will most likely depose the ruling monarchy in favor of a constitutional democracy. This was a key component in a deal reached with Communist Maoist rebels who have wrought havoc on Napal for 10-years.

As this small South Asian nation wedged between China and India embarks on a historic election, many are braced for the outcome. On the eve of elections, violence spread throughout the country resulting in seven dead and the AP reporting “at least one protester and six former rebels [killed] in separate clashes.”

Polling Suspended in Area Where Candidate Was Killed

From The Press Association…

Surket district decided to suspend the polls after Rishi Prasad Sharma, a candidate of the Communist Party of Nepal United Marxist Leninist, was gunned down, according to election official Binod Kumar Pokhrel.

A new polling date will be chosen in about a week for the constituency in Jahare Bazar town, where Sharma was killed, Pokhrel said. The election will be held in other areas of the district where there has been no violence, he said.

A curfew has been imposed in the area, about 310 miles west of the capital, Pokhrel said, adding the situation was still tense.

Police said they have no suspects in the death of Sharma, whose communist party is one of the three main election contenders.

Meanwhile, the King Urges Calm

King Gyanendra, who is considered to be a godlike figure to his supporters, is most likely to be forced out of power following elections. He called for calm and has expressed his support of Thursday’s elections.

From South Africa’s The Times…

“It has always been our desire to ensure that under no circumstance are the nation’s existence, independence and integrity compromised,” said Gyanendra, the big loser of a peace deal with Maoist rebels that ended a decade of civil war.

“We call upon all adult citizens to exercise their democratic right in a free and fair environment,” he said in a rare statement.

Despite the encouraging words, many were not buying its genuiness.

More from The Times…

Bhasker Gautam, a political analyst and author, said that the king’s message was “an attempt to give the impression that he is in favour of democracy.” “He is trying to retain and expand his political space by attempting to show he is concerned about common people,” Gautam said.

First Tibet, Don’t Forget the Uighurs

WSJ reports that ethnic Turkic Uighurs in the northwest region of Xinjiang have fallen into the crosshairs of Chinese authorities seeking to ensure that their aspirations for autonomy are muted following on an outbreak of violent protests by activists in Tibet.

Chinese paramilitary police sealed off a market town in central China last month and detained dozens of ethnic Uighurs, said local residents and a government official.

The arrests, which occurred in late March in Henan province but weren’t reported at the time, appear to be part of an expanding Chinese government effort to prevent dissatisfaction among Turkic Uighurs from exploding into the kind of unrest that has swept Tibetan areas of the country.

Witnesses said hundreds of armed police descended on the Henan town of Shifosi, where there is a significant population of Uighur jade traders. “About 50 Uighurs were arrested,” said a local government official.

…Uighur activists say that once unrest started in Tibetan areas in early April, Chinese authorities began rounding up suspected Uighur dissidents in an effort to forestall similar protests in Xinjiang during the run-up to the Beijing Olympics in August.

The Foreign Policy Association’s Central Asia blog had this to say about any possible Uighur-Tibet connection in the recent spate of protests against Chinese rule…

“I have not come across much evidence which showcases Uighur, Tibetan, and one may want to include Taiwanese, collaboration in protesting for greater autonomy against the Chinese government, but these protests are no doubt piggy-backing on each other. . . With the Olympic Torch literally shining a light on their situations, it will be important to follow how these movements may either work together, copy each other, or follow each other in protesting the Chinese government’s policies in their region.”

Whether or not there is collaboration, these suppressed groups clearly view the Olympics as an opportunity for the world to hear their call for greater freedom from China’s rule.

In the meantime, China has put forth claims of suppressing terrorist operations in Xinjiang, citing recent activities by Islamic groups considered to be terrorists by the Communist government.

From the NY Times, which also reported on the Uighur protests…

Two weeks before the reported protest in Hotan, China announced the discovery of what it called a terrorist plot in Xinjiang, which it said involved the smuggling of combustible liquids onto a commercial airliner by a Uighur woman who had spent time in neighboring Pakistan.

Officials called the incident part of a terrorist campaign by a radical Islamic independence group, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement.

China’s crackdown on the Uighurs, however, may breed the same kind of radicalization it seeks to suppress. Some of this is largerly due to the way Uighur prisoners are treated and interrogated once they are incarcarated by Chinese officials.

Charles Cummings at The Guardian recently wrote this account from his book (”Typhoon”) due to be published in June…

Amnesty International has reported numerous incidents of torture, from cigarette burns on the skin to submersion in water or raw sewage. Prisoners have had toenails extracted by pliers, been attacked by dogs and burned with electric batons, even
cattle prods.

In Typhoon, I relate the terrifying true story of a prisoner in Xinjiang who had horse hair inserted into the tip of his penis. Throughout this diabolical torture, the victim was forced to wear a metal helmet on his head. Why? Because a previous inmate had been so traumatised by his treatment in the prison that he had beaten his own head against a radiator in an attempt to take his own life.

This is the reality of life in modern Xinjiang. Quite what the Chinese hope to gain from their inhumane behaviour remains unclear. According to Corinna-Barbara Francis, a researcher with Amnesty’s East Asia team, “the intensified repression of Uighurs by the Chinese authorities is in danger of contributing to the very outcome that China claims it is warding against - the radicalisation of the population and the adoption of violent responses to the repression.”

Xenophobia and Hate Groups Proliferate in Russia

Russia’s recent influx of immigrants, coupled with a declining birth rate, an ever growing use of ultra-nationalist rhetoric by political leaders, and the swelling ranks of neo-Nazi skinhead groups, has led to a volatile set of conditions prime for an explosion of xenophobia toward non-white Russians and immigrants.

Immigrants in Russia Target #1

An article in WSJ today reports on this disturbing trend, particularly as it relates to Russia’s immigrant population…

Diaspora groups and migration experts estimate there are as many as 15 million immigrants living in Russia — out of a population of 142 million — including a large number of illegal immigrants. Immigrant numbers are growing, according to the United Nations, a trend that Russian officials say is aggravating tensions.

Racism experts and officials are divided on why skinheads have cranked up the violence. One theory is that they are reacting to tougher policing; another that it is the work of infamy-hungry copycats. Killing migrants with a knife has become a skinhead pastime, says Semyon Charny, an expert at the Moscow Bureau for Human Rights.

The attackers sometimes record their crimes on videos as proof of work done for shadowy neo-Nazi groups that, police believe, commission the killings.

Human Rights First’s 2007 Hate Crime Survey paints a shocking picture of hate crimes and xenophobia in Russia…

In the Russian Federation, hate crimes have proliferated in the context of organized nationalist movements of the extreme right, including neo-Nazi organizations. Although there is no official data from which to quantify annual levels of violence, media reports and statistical analysis by domestic nongovernmental organizations, notably the SOVA Center for Information and Analysis, a leading Moscow-based organization that monitors hate crimes in Russia, describe rising violence against Russia’s ethnic, religious, and national minorities of crisis proportions. The SOVA Center documented 31 racist murders in 2005 and hate-based attacks on 413 individuals. Those numbers rose significantly in 2006 to 540 cases of violent hate crimes, including 54 murders, sustaining a steady trend of rising violence over the past several years.

The Sova (COBA) Center cites the following numbers for March 2008…

In March 2008, in Russia, there were not less than 31 racially motivated attacks on 40 people, including 10 fatalities. In total, in 2008, not less than 39 people died and 112 were injured in 14 regions of Russia.

Moscow stays the major center of violence with 24 people murdered and not less than 63 injured, including 5 murdered and 20 injured people in March.

Obviously, because of the big number of deadly crimes, the information about minor incidents remains underreported. In particular, in St. Petersburg, the second center of the neo-nazi violence, in 2008, there have been reports about 7 murdered and only 4 injured people. This proportion hardly reflects the real situation in the city.

In March 2008, Russian courts issued not less than 4 guilty verdicts for the violent hate crimes, in Moscow, Ivanovo, Omsk and Yaroslavl. In total in 2008, there were 6 guilty verdicts for racially motivated violence against 11 people.

Tracking such information in Russia is very difficult. Sova, and other human rights organizations, continue to rely on a myriad of sources for their data.

The Moscow Times reports on the difficulties associated with tracking hate crimes in Russia…

While there is no single methodological standard used worldwide to collect data on hate crimes, many governments track figures culled from local police and NGOs. In Russia’s vast regions, many of which lack civic institutions and police trained in identifying racist attacks, experts say this has proven a nearly impossible task.

In many remote regions, for example, Sova relies on a primitive combination of word of mouth and Internet monitoring to gather information, Sova head Alexander Verkhovsky said. Often the organizations can merely scan neo-Nazi chat rooms, follow local media reports and wait for the next blip to appear on the radar.

In areas lacking Internet access, collecting any data at all can be nearly impossible, Verkhovsky said. “In some cases, like Volgograd, we are sure there are more incidents than we know of because there is a very active nationalist movement there,” he said. “But we have practically no information from the region.”

Two More Journalists Murdered in Russia

The bodies of two Russian journalists from the volitile North Caucus Republic of Dagestan were found in separate incidents on Friday, according to media reports.

Russia has a long history of being a place not too friendly to an open and critical media, and it has the death count to prove it - more than a dozen journalists have died in Russian contract-style killings since 2000, according to Reuters.

Longtime North Caucasus Correspondent Murdered in Moscow

Ilyas Shurapyev, 32, a correspondent from Russia’s Channel One, was found murdered in his rented Moscow flat less than a month after relocating from his native region, Dagestan. While there, Shurpayev had covered the North Caucasus for NTV and Channel One.

State-run Vesti-24 television cited a concierge in Shurpayev’s building as saying he had called down from his apartment to ask her to let in two young men. The men apparently looked like natives of North Caucasus, the report said.

His body was discovered after firefighters responded to call at his apartment building. When they arrived, firefighters found Shurpayev’s body riddled with multiple knife wounds and a belt wrapped around his neck.

Official reports have stated that the cause of death was strangulation. Arson and robbery were ruled out as potential motives for the killing. The fire is believed to have been started as a way of destroying the crime scene and diverting investigators. No suspects have been detained.

Reactions to Shurpayev’s Murder

Channel One released the following statement on Shurpayev’s death…

“Channel One correspondent Ilyas Shurpayev has been killed in Moscow…. He leaves behind a five-year-old daughter. We mourn for him and express our deepest condolences to his relatives,” Channel One said in a statement. …[Sharpayev's] CV includes all the hotspots in the Caucasus…. And very often he would work in practically combat-like conditions,” said the statement issued by Channel One.

The Caucasian Knot has been following the story very closely, and had a chance to speak with Shurpayev’s family and colleagues in Dagestan. Their reactions to possible motives surrounding his violent death are of bewilderment.

Ilyas Shurpaev’s relatives, with whom the “Caucasian Knot” correspondent had a chance to talk, said that he had no enemies, and in his telephone calls from Moscow, where he had gone for work quite recently, he did not complain and was full of creative plans.

…”We are shocked by the news about Shurpaev’s murder,” the “Caucasian Knot” correspondent was told at the Union of Journalists of Dagestan. “Shurpaev had never interfered with politics, he did not cover criminal problems and had always been an intelligent person.”

Dagestan Regional Media Chief Gunned Down

In what appears (at the moment) to be an unrelated killing, the head of Dagestan Republic’s state-run TV and radio broadcasting unit and former television journalist, Gadzhi Abashilov, was killed in a gangland-style shooting when his car was fired upon by at least one assassin around 8 p.m. in the Dagestani capital of Makhachkala.

Abashilov previously hosted his own TV program, edited a local newspaper, and served as deputy information minister in the Republic.

CPJ.org cobbled together reports of the murder…

Abashilov, 58, was shot and killed in his car by at least one gunman who fled the scene immediately after, according to news agency RIA Novosti. Abashilov’s driver was injured but survived. An Itar-Tass report said the shooting took place close to a local grocery store and involved an AK-47. Prosecutor General Yuri Chaika has reportedly assumed personal control of the investigation, signifying that the case has been given priority. Read more…

Abashilov and Shurpayev Placed on Media Blacklist

Hours before his death, Shurpayev had posted on his blog that he had been placed on a blacklist of journalists by the founder of Nastoyascheye Vremya (Present Time), a popular Dagestani newspaper. He is reported to have been prevented from having a column he wrote from being published.

The Independent quoted Shurpayev’s last blog entry on March 20 at 15:49 (Moscow Times) as saying…

‘Hello, Sakharov – I’m a dissident! Well, I made it! Now I’m a dissident! Don’t know whether to laugh or cry. I already wrote here that at a Dagestani newspaper there’s a battle going on between the journalists and the founders. But all of this is far too serious and I don’t really understand it. Here’s what blows me away. The founders produced a list of people who it’s forbidden to publish in the paper. You can’t refer to them or even … sorry, speak to them inside the walls of the editorial office. And there I am, right in the front row! At the top of the list!

I have never taken part in the political life of the republic [Dagestan] or even of my region, because I’m lazy … Maybe I should do a “suitcases, train-station, off-to-Israel” turn so as not to become a second Khodorkovsky! Anyway. Matilda! Knit me some woollen socks. Just in case. My size is 43 and a half.’

Caucasian Knot had previously reported on efforts by the founders of Present Time to rid its staff of “unwanted” journalists.

RIA Novosti has more the Dagestani paper’s blacklist, which also included Abashilov’s name…

A former editor in chief of the paper, Andrei Melamedov, confirmed the claim to RIA Novosti, saying both men had been put on the list in late 2007.

“The general director of the newspaper, Rizvan Rizvanov, did in fact hand me a list of people whose names he categorically did not want to see in the newspaper,” Melamedov said.

As well as Shurpayev and Abashilov, the list also included several other prominent local journalists and public figures. Melamedov said the director had not given a reason for the ban.

The investigations into both cases are ongoing without any suspects.